Never Mind

Regarding the previous post, scratch that. Indecision and inertia (and a brief flash of common sense) has won out. If it's not broke (too badly), don't fix it.

Plus, forcing the majority of the tolerant, kind, and long-suffering Hood River Weather visitors to change your links would be downright inconsiderate of me.

Plus, Temira has mentioned the chat window in her forecast blog and provided the link, and I sure don't want to get on HER bad side... :)

To those visitors that for whatever reason(s) prefer the original non-chat version of the site, I certainly respect that. Simply click here and bookmark that as your entry point. And the chat window has it's own separate web page here, which is good if you don't want to have your reading or typing interrupted by the weather site auto-refresh every 15 minutes.

So, once again, "it seems the more things don't change, the more they stay the same". How true. I'm not sure if Yogi Berra (or George W. for that matter) said that, but they should have.

One of the many rainbows over Hood River yesterday

Changes

I've had 27 responses to my survey regarding the location of the chat window on the Hood River Weather site. Thanks everybody for your input, it was very much appreciated.

58% wanted it to stay exactly where it was. The rest, all over the field.

My conclusion? The current location of the chat window is definitely a distraction and a tripping point for those not interested in chat. And, as the weather gets more boring, the discussions will probably move further away from weather, which is fine with me, but maybe not so much for others.

So here's the changes coming up. Since I'm all about options, the main entry site (weather.htm) will NOT have the chat window, but a link to it. I'll also provide an identical site with the chat window in the current position. The chat window has its own site, which is here. Myself, I have mostly moved to that separate site for chat, since it isn't affected by the auto-refresh of the main weather site.

In other words, the Hood River Weather site will be an opt-in site regarding chat, rather than an opt-out.

These changes will occur in the next 48 hours. Once done, bookmark the site you prefer, and I'll see you there one way or another.

Click Here

I was just advised of this link. Trader Joe's location request form. For a long time now, I've been hoping TJ's would locate a store here in the Columbia River Gorge.

Thanks for the link, Chris.

Jan 10 update: It has been suggested that a location in The Dalles might be preferable, and I agree.

Extreme Weather: A Theory

The past 4 weeks have brought some of the most extreme and variable winter weather I can ever remember Hood River having. Arctic air, record snow depths, huge icicles, black ice, freezing rain, slush, mountain rain, sudden warming by westerly winds, spring-like days, heavy rain, and flooding. I've almost certainly left some things out.

There's plenty of theories and models attempting to explain the extreme weather this winter. I've really enjoyed the excellent links and discussions in the new Hood River Weather "Live Chat" window. Not having a strong background in weather modeling, I've learned a lot, and have had fun doing it. But, come on. All this talk of models and ENSO and ocean temperatures and ocean conveyor belts is, quite frankly, crazy talk.

I have developed my own (more sane) theory as to why our mild weather turned to extreme weather when it did. It's consistent with my observations, elegant in its simplicity, and, (due to Occam's Razor) almost certainly correct. I see the pattern clearly, and it's a perfect fit.

On Dec 13, 2008, at approximately 16:30, I created the chat room, inserted it into the site code, and turned it on. Within hours, the weather patterns started to change. Arctic air moved in. Snow. Ice. A weather pattern shift of monstrous proportions!

I am now almost certain that, by plugging in the chat room, I inadvertently opened a window into the "Extreme Weather Dimension" (EWD). And, at that moment, the "Extreme Weather Dimension Monster" (EWDM) stepped through into our world. Ever since, it (the EWDM) has been wreaking havoc on our weather.

Now... whether this was due to cosmic strings oscillating off-key, or multiple strings colliding in the d-dimension of space/time, well, I just couldn't tell you. But that's not important. It happened, and I take full responsibility for my tragic miscalculations.

It's clear to me now what I must do next. I've seen the movies. I must somehow dive into the chat room, thereby entering the EWD. I'll do this at a time when there is no one else in there; your safety is of upmost concern. Once in, I must taunt the EWD Monster (who is wreaking havoc on our weather); enraging it sufficiently so that it storms back into the EWD, where I will be ready and waiting...

Oh yes, I will be ready for it. While I engage it in battle, at the proper moment I will pull the plug on the chat room (EWD). Victory! I have lured the enraged EWDM back into the EWD and our weather can return to a normal winter pattern! I have rectified my sins! I have... oh shit...

I have trapped myself in the EWD with the enraged EWDM, and I have closed the portal.

Ok, I've got some work to do on the details. I'll let you know how things develop. In any event, enjoy the more normal winter weather coming up.

Changes ahead for the HR Weather live chat room. Stay tuned...

The EWD Monster in a more restful mood... but getting slightly irritated...

Hey... Who Turned The Lights On?

That would be me. 2 years ago, when I started this blog, I figured it would be cool (or at least consistent) to have the same dark background/neon foreground color scheme as the main weather site. The resulting blog color scheme was certainly consistent, but not very cool as far as readability goes.

Lately I've been feeling like I needed a flashlight to read the white text on the black background. I figured if I was having trouble with it, why would anyone else even bother to suffer through it? So this should reduce the suffering somewhat.

Now, all you have suffer through is the content in here...

BTW, the dark background color scheme for the weather site is remaining the same. For now. So keep your flashlights handy.

Excuses

OK, I've neglected this blog long enough. It's just that I've been a little distracted lately. I have no one to blame but myself. No excuses. But here's my excuses anyway:

For years I'd been looking for ways to make the Hood River Weather site more user-interactive. I really wanted to inform visitors of changes or problems with the site, and compare notes and observations on current weather.

So 2 years ago I started this blog (first posting is here). Interactivity at last! But it turns out that not all that many people read blogs, and even fewer people make comments. So it was mostly just me blabbering on about weather, astronomy/cosmology, gardening, web links that were probably only interesting to me, world events that pissed me off, etc. Even though not many comments came in, the blog turned out to be a fun exercise in writing, which I had enjoyed years ago but stopped doing.

Fast forward to Saturday, Dec 13, 2008. Browsing through some of the local blogs I follow, I scroll down through local photographer Blaine Franger's blog, admiring his excellent photos as always. And then: THERE... IT...IS. A chat program that is a quantum leap better than any chat service I had seen previously! I hauled ass over to Cbox, registered, installed chat windows on this blog and on the main weather site, and sat back, not expecting any more than a few comments to come trickling in occasionally.

This was one day before a huge mass of arctic air arrived in the Pacific Northwest, leading to a series of heavy snow/cold weather events that continues to the present time. A weather geek's weather dream come true. Suddenly, I was up to my neck in site interactivity, and have been a tad bit distracted ever since.

But it's all good. The people making comments are (so far) a relatively well-behaved group, and I'm slowly backing off the feeling that as administrator I have to check it every 15 minutes or so. And during slow weather, if there's only a few or no posts, that's cool with me. At least the channels of communication are open.

So, for kicks, I did a poll on the site, asking if people thought adding the chat window was a good idea:

• 46% thought it was a good idea (and would probably participate)

• 30% thought it was a good idea (but probably wouldn't participate)

• 24% thought I had probably made a terrible, terrible mistake.

I suspect the biggest problem is that it's a potential distraction/tripping point for viewers looking for weather information located farther down the site. So I've come up with some future options for the chat window, which you can vote on here. I'm way open to suggestions. Oh, by the way, for those who are turned off by the chat window, I've put up a non-chat version of the site.

Enough already. I gotta go check the chat window. It's been at least 15 minutes...

Warm Morning

This morning's low of 46 was warmer than the previous "high low" record of 44 degrees set in 1938. I'm not sure if that will hold, since cooler temperatures will probably follow this weak storm front after it moves out later today.

No snow at the Oregon ski resorts. Long range forecasts indicate the possibility of arctic air moving in next weekend and perhaps precipitation (snow!) after that. I certainly hope so. 'Tis the season, after all.

A couple of notes about the Hood River Weather site. In the true spirit of Christmas, I've added an affiliate Amazon.com gadget showing the "Deal of the Day" and other deals nearly impossible for any sane person to pass up. But, do feel free to pass them up, regardless of your sanity.

The weather site has not yet made me independently wealthy. In the interest of full disclosure, the Yahoo ad just below the Amazon ad actually brings in about $100 a year. Not enough to quit my day job, but then the site is more a fun hobby than anything else.

Also, I've added a link to Mark Nelsen's "Fox 12 Weather Blog" in the Weather Links area. I've been following Mark's blog for a while and am impressed with the weather model discussions. Mark also has a personal weather site full of interesting NW weather links.

Just in case you aren't hearing enough holiday music yet, here's my favorite Christmas song. Well, not specifically Christmas, but definitely winter wonderland related. This is the Eurythmics version of the tune:

Start Wearing Purple

Maybe this, or something similar, has happened to you. You check your email. There's a link in one that looks interesting, so you click it.

Hours later, you find yourself at a web site far far away from where you started.

So yesterday, I glanced at the email that I get monthly from Atom.com: "New Featured Videos". Here's one: "Impersonator does George Bush Exit Interviews". What the heck. It might be funny. I need a laugh, and lame duck presidents are cool, in their own way. Click.

It's an entertaining impersonation of President Bush. But what really caught my eye (and ears) was the short Yahoo ad that proceeded the videos. People in an elevator. One starts singing a very catchy tune. Others join in, fun is had by all, and the commercial ends.

It was a very catchy tune. So I did a Google search on the song, which was "Start Wearing Purple". Click.

Hours later, after much web research and much clicking, I now know more about the Eastern European/New York musical genre called gypsy punk than I ever imagined possible. That certainly wasn't in my plans for the evening, but that's the thing about plans.

The purple part of the song title is up for grabs: is it the color favored by gypsies? Royalty? Gays? Conservatives? Liberals? It's a mystery, along with why Yahoo chose the tune for an ad (except that it's so darn catchy).

I've embedded the video of the song below. It's by the performance group Gogol Bordello. The catchy tune part starts at 30 seconds or so. Please note that there is actually very little wearing of purple. Or anything else, for that matter. Apparently, gypsies have a lot of fun.

And, accordions are involved.

Don't Breathe Advisory

As I rounded the corner from Rowena to The Dalles on my morning commute today, I was apparently teleported to the Los Angeles air basin. Or at least that's what the sky looked like. Visibility appeared to be less than 5 miles, pretty unusual for around here.

The National Weather Service isn't too impressed with the air quality either. An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for the Gorge and Eastern Oregon. The advisory expires at noon tomorrow (if we don't expire first), as a Pacific weather system moves in to hopefully stir things up.

But, by all means, keep burning those piles of leaves and brush!

View this morning looking west towards The Dalles

A Ray Of Hope

I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but today the Iraq government has taken encouraging steps towards mandating total US troop withdrawal by 2011. And, the Bush administration is apparently OK with that, after being against timetables for withdrawal. Thanks, Mr President. Being willing to change one's mind when circumstances warrant is a sign of maturity.

I'm pretty sure Rush won't approve of this weak-spined flip-flopping though, but as far as Rush is concerned, Obama is already President and is directly responsible for this recession (depression?) plus every other bad thing in the world. Maybe the entire Universe. At least the heat is off the Clinton administration. Oh wait... the current Obama administration IS the Clinton administration. Funny stuff.

Pushing On A String

This weeks Hood River Weather site poll wonders what we should do about the impending bankruptcy of the Not So Big 3 U.S. automakers.

My thoughts? I believe capitalism and a "free market" system (with just enough regulatory oversight to keep companies relatively honest and/or legal) are probably the best fit for human nature. Capitalism allows companies to take risks and either succeed or fail based on product quality, consumer demand, and how well the company is run. It's far from a perfect system, but much better than economic systems where the government runs the companies.

Of course, we've never had a pure capitalistic free market system. There have been and always will be elements of government control and socialism sprinkled into the mix. But lately the sprinkling has turned into a downpour, as banks, insurance companies, and now automakers have been deemed "too big to fail". Unfortunately, as economists have increasingly pointed out, some institutions may prove to be "too big to save".

So where do we draw the line with taxpayer money being used to sustain companies with failing business models? My opinion is: right here, right now, starting with US automakers. Let the bankruptcy system work. Let creative destruction eventually fill the niches with leaner, smarter companies. Yes, thousands, perhaps millions of people will suffer tragic economic hardships, at least temporarily. Yes, facing the music and letting companies fail will deepen the recession. But recessions NEED to happen occasionally to wring the excesses out of the previous economic boom times.

And besides, governmental attempts to avoid recessions are usually about as successful as pushing on a string.

They Knew...

Yet another post about the ongoing global financial meltdown. Sorry, but this stuff is really fascinating to me. But then, I would find an asteroid striking the Earth really fascinating too.

It's the popular consensus that the main (or at least initial) cause of this financial mess was the collapse of the housing bubble. Blame for the bubble and subsequent bust is being placed everywhere: Clinton, Bush, liberals, conservatives, greedy mortgage lenders, under qualified home buyers, crazy types of loans, government regulators asleep at the wheel. All of which are factors, but this misses the Much Bigger Question, which is:

We've had housing boom/bust cycles before. Never before did they threaten to take down the entire global financial system like this. What's so different this time?

What's so different is what was done with the mortgages after they were sold. Wall Street investment companies (Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, etc) were buying up as many mortgages as they could from banks and mortgage companies so they could repackage the loans into exotic instruments sold all over the world as AAA rated "safe" investments. Banks and mortgage companies were more than happy to quickly unload these increasingly risky mortgages onto someone else. Every step along the way, big commissions were being made. Unfortunately each step took the underlying risk and magnified it, while at the same time making the increasing risk less and less visible.

The result? The entire global financial system became an extremely leveraged house of cards, with risky mortgages forming the foundation.

To shift metaphors a bit, when the first domino fell (foreclosures and the drop in housing prices), Wall Street investment companies were the next domino in line. And there are a whole lot more dominoes starting to fall that were set in place by greed and lack of regulatory oversight. Insurance companies, pensions, entire countries, and much much more. We haven't seen the end of this.

Speaking of the end of this, here's an excellent (but lengthy) personal account of what was going on in Wall Street over the past decade. Titled "The End", it is authored by Michael Lewis, who worked for a while in Wall Street, and earlier wrote the book "Liars Poker".

When Bear Sterns and Lehman collapsed, putting thousands of investment analysts out of work, the photos I saw of them leaving their workplace for the last time seemed rather odd. They were mostly all smiling or at least not looking worried. Strange, for having suddenly just lost a very high paying job. But it turns out that a lot of them saw this coming a long time ago, and some even placed (and collected!) multi-million-dollar bets that the risky financial instruments they had created from mortgages would eventually take down the very companies they worked for. Not to mention, most of the global economy.

They knew. They knew...

(another really fascinating global meltdown scenario)

Whew

Thank goodness THAT'S over. I don't know how many more Presidential elections I can take. They're way too polarizing, and way too superficial for my liking.

The final Hood River Weather site poll was Obama 60%, McCain 32%. Nationally, the results were Obama 53%, McCain 46%. In Oregon, Obama 54%, McCain 42%. I don't have the results for Hood River County yet.

Meanwhile, the weather continues on its random walk into late Fall/Winter with lots of rain, some snow in the mountains, and tree leaves falling rapidly all over everything. It's almost as if... as if the Universe somehow goes on its way with very little concern about the political and economic concerns of humans on this tiny rock 93 million miles from an ordinary star in an ordinary galaxy in a Universe full of so much more than we can possibly imagine.

Leverage This

Those pesky Credit Default Swaps (CDS), which have turned a housing boom/bust cycle into a full blown global financial meltdown, are even worse than I thought.

It was 2 years ago, upon reading a lot about Wall Street's and insurance company's invention of CDS's, derivatives, their connection to the housing boom/mortgages, and their potential disastrous consequences, that I decided to move pretty much out of stocks. I was a year early, and missed out on some big gains, but also some big losses. It was one of my luckier market timing moves, and it almost makes up for all my typically terrible stock market timing moves earlier in life. I am VERY SLOWLY moving a little cash back into equities, but today I read this:

Unbelievably, CDS's were also set up to insure the debt of ENTIRE NATIONS.

This is not good. Not good at all. Talk about a domino effect... Goodbye to some insurance companies, goodbye to some sovereign nations' finances. Goodbye totally leveraged global financial house of cards. It was fun while it lasted.

The weather in Hood River, however, continues to be fantastic, fun, and lasting. Perfect for leveraging these warm days, cool nights, and great Fall colors into some great outdoor activities!

Poll? What Poll?

Sometime yesterday morning the weekly poll on the Hood River Weather site disappeared. Just up and vanished. And it was getting interesting, with Jeff Merkley slightly ahead of Gordon Smith in the Oregon senatorial race, which pretty much reflects the results of other polls.

To create the weekly poll, I've been using a paid poll hosting service. It's pretty inexpensive, and up until now has been quite reliable. Hopefully this is just a short term problem. If the hosting service doesn't re-surface in the next few days, I'll start using a free service (PollDaddy), which is a lot more versatile anyway. It allows multiple choices, comments, and conditional branching, all of which makes for a better polling experience. I haven't switched yet because I still have some months left on the paid service, but this might force the issue earlier.

10/12/08 12:50 Update: Nevermind. The poll is back, 30 minutes after I posted the above rant. Now I just have to come up with a new poll topic...

Busy garden day today... planting garlic, mowing the lawn, harvesting and roasting peppers and pumpkin seeds:

Babitz For Mayor

In an era where governmental fiscal responsibility is pretty much an oxymoron, there are some refreshing exceptions. Those exceptions exist largely because state and local laws require balanced budgets. But, as California's annual budgetary contortions demonstrate, there are plenty of ways to hide a deficit. "Kick the can down the road" politics at its best. Or worst.

Realistically, there's not a lot I can do to change global, federal or state fiscal irresponsibility, but I can act locally. And this year's City of Hood River mayoral race provides just such an opportunity.

City Councilman Arthur Babitz has thrown his hat into the mayor's race. After reading the position statements on his blog, he's got my vote. It's refreshing to have a candidate who has a specific, well thought out, and responsible fiscal plan, rather than the usual vague platitudes.

The Hood River Weather site's weekly poll asks how you will vote in this mayoral race. And if you aren't registered to vote in the real world yet, you have until Oct 14th in Oregon.

Now it's outside in the real world to enjoy this fantastic early Fall heat wave!

Indian Summer (Debatably)

The expression Indian Summer might not be all that politically correct anymore, but it sure is a great time of the year. Native Americans can be proud. Besides, what's not to like about a period of warm days and cool nights after the first frost, accelerating the changing colors of the deciduous trees and shrubs?

The debatable part refers to the fact that in Hood River City proper, this beautiful warm spell isn't technically an Indian Summer yet. At our weather station, we hit a low of 35 on Sept 23, and the official MCAREC station dipped to 33. But, temperatures at slightly higher elevations went below 32, and most likely put an end to the tomato, pepper, squash, and cucumber season at those locations. Close enough to an Indian Summer for me.

The average first frost date in Hood River is Oct 20. Last year, it held off until Oct 26. The year before, Oct 10th.

Speaking of debatable, how about that Presidential debate? Since neither candidate screwed up too badly, I suspect each side is convinced that its candidate clearly "won". What is clear is that there is a distinct difference in personality and viewpoints, and how future challenges will be perceived and acted upon.

What is not so clear to me is whether who wins the election will make much of a difference. Fiscal irresponsibility and bad decisions, past and present, have set our country on an economic course that is probably not reversible in time to avoid some historically huge icebergs ahead. And whoever is President over the next 4 years will have their hands tied as to their options.

Like most people, I vote for the candidate whose stand on the issues and approach to problem solving is most aligned with mine. I'm pretty independent; political party affiliation is way down on my list of things to consider, especially since I don't hardly even recognize Republican or Democratic actions anymore. Years ago the Republicans were the more fiscally responsible party (pre-Reagan), but that notion is long gone. Now it's borrow and spend. Or, if you prefer tax and spend, the Democrats will be happy to oblige. But how about "live within one's means"? How quaint of a notion is that?

At this point, I'll probably be voting for Obama. He lives more in the current and future world than McCain. He's younger, more flexible, more open to new data and approaches, not driven by religious dogma, and hopefully not so prone to solving future problems with yesterday's worn out solutions. Besides, it's time to let someone from a different party other than Republicans fail miserably over the next 4 years.

Good luck to whoever wins this election. They will definitely need it.

Autumn

Ahh, Autumn. The autumnal equinox, equal days and nights. The start of Fall here, the start of Spring down under. The sun moves directly over the equator at noon today on its annual path through the seasons from the Northern to the Southern hemisphere.

Of course, it's not the sun doing the actual moving through the seasons; it's Earth sailing smoothly along its elliptical orbit around the sun, tilted just enough to present different hemispheres to the sun at different times of the year.

Speaking of things that are not sailing smoothly along, I am so relieved that the federal government has stepped in to save the faltering world economy with untold trillions of dollars that we don't really have and never will. I was very concerned that Wall Street brokerages, SEC regulators, banks, mortgage companies, and mortgage holders might actually be held responsible for mistakes made. Whew. That was close. Saved by the printing press.

For now. In the long run (maybe not so long of a run), by bankrupting our country, we can kiss our currency goodbye. Thought you had enough money set aside for a secure retirement? Think again. And, if you can, keep working.

Now that I've set a dismal tone for the beginning of Fall, here's an old Edgar Winter song that, although beautifully written and sung, never fails to put me in a vaguely depressed and melancholy state of mind:



Actually, I do love the autumn months. It's a visually stunning time of the year, and the weather is varied and interesting.

And I'm not really depressed. I'm just a little pissed off at the amount of irresponsibility and incompetence that has created this financial mess. And the laissez-faire "everything goes if it benefits businesses" approach of the government didn't help things.

I'll get over it. This too shall pass...

Never Mind

I guess I spoke too soon in the previous post. With the Feds apparently about to step in and cushion the collapse of giant AIG insurance company with taxpayer dollars, all is now good with the stock market. There will probably be a big jump in stocks tomorrow.

So here's the current investing plan: When the Feds appear to be stepping in and helping support otherwise bankrupt companies, the stock market will soar. When the Feds appear to be holding back from such taxpayer support, the stock market will plummet.

This would be really exciting, if it weren't so damn depressing and potentially catastrophic.

There seems to be a fire somewhere up valley from here (here being May and Rand Street); the evening sun is turning orange from the smoke. Haven't seen anything on the news about it yet; hopefully no homes are in danger.

9/17 update: It's apprently the Gnarl Ridge fire on the east flank of Mt Hood, which was started by lightening in early August and has re-emerged.

Harvested some pumpkins this past weekend (mellowed by the currently orange sunlight):

Wall Street Takes A Hit

And not a moment too soon. One of the things I find interesting and try to keep current on is the economic structure of our civilization. I was getting a little tired of the US Federal Government stepping in with their ability to create electronic money out of thin air (more debt) and using it to rescue companies who really should be allowed to go bankrupt due to the companys' poor business decisions. It's called the principle of moral hazard. If you insulate companies and individuals from the consequences of their actions, it's not a good thing.

So today I felt something I haven't felt for a while: a sense of respect for the Feds. They held their ground. They didn't bail out Lehman Brothers. I don't expect that practice to continue, but it felt good today.

And such fiscally responsible actions are the morally right thing to do for future generations. They will be the ones wondering what were we thinking when we saddled them with unpayable mountains of debt that has the potential to destroy our currency through hyperinflation, or crash the economy into deflation. It's happened throughout history with other countries that were fiscally irresponsible, and we are not immune.

So, vote for the most fiscally responsible candidates! (Good luck figuring out who they are).

Enough ranting. Enjoy this wonderful late summer weather.