Midsummer Musings

After last week's heat wave, the high temperatures have moderated into the 80's with a relatively steady but not overwhelming west wind; perfect for wind sports and a lot of other outdoor activities. Forecasts are calling for more of the same with a slight chance of showers midweek.

This week's web poll asks what people think is the most likely "actual" reason that the Bush administration pursued what a lot of people are now seeing as an ill-conceived invasion of Iraq. I have previously posted some of my thoughts on the issue.

The poll lists 4 choices: To dispose of Saddam Hussein and WMDs, to spread democracy, to fight terrorism, and to attempt to stabilize the Middle East politics and culture (and therefore the area's oil supply which the global economy now firmly depends on).

I assumed even before the invasion started that the last reason (global oil supply security) was the most likely, at least in the decision-maker's minds. The first 3 reasons didn't fit the known information: Saddam was the only power that held the various factions in Iraq together, and pre-war inspectors had said he had no WMD's. There was little tradition of democracy in the area, and besides, democracy is probably best when people decide they want it themselves and work from within to achieve it themselves. Last, invading Iraq wouldn't help against terrorism and would squander our resources in the process.

So, that left the fact that we have or are about to reach peak oil globally (it's mostly all downhill from here), and the neo-cons figured that we would establish a foothold in the Middle East and that would solve that. Seems like a much better approach would have been to create a far-sighted energy policy that actively encouraged alternate energy sources, conservation, and increased energy independence.

In a humorous comment to the post directly before this one, dbradway mentions that I left out one choice in the web poll. After reading it and laughing, I had to agree, since I've also thought that no president other than G.W. Bush would have seriously entertained the notion of an Iraq invasion being an appropriate action. Not even Bush's dad...